How We Calculate Your Pass Probability

CLEP, Accuplacer, and TEAS exams are multiple-choice, so our practice question format mirrors exam day exactly.

Every number comes from your own activity on PrepLion. Specifically:

• Per-unit mastery scores from your practice sessions
• Diagnostic scores as a baseline when no practice data exists yet for a unit
• Best mock exam score (any full-length mock you've taken)
• Recent 14-day accuracy across all completed sessions
• Total sessions + total questions attempted — these drive our confidence tag (low / medium / high)

We weight mastery most heavily (~50%), recent accuracy next (~30%), and mock performance last (~20%). The final number is capped at 95% — no prediction is perfect, and we'd rather underpromise.

When we tell you "in 7 days you'll be at ~60%," here's how we got that number:

• Baseline daily gain: ~3 pass-points per day for a motivated student practicing 30+ questions.
• Diminishing returns: every 10 points of gain cuts the next day's rate by ~25% (easier to go from 30 to 40 than from 70 to 80).
• Ceiling: 95%. Same cap as the main pass-probability calculation.

This projection is intentionally conservative. Students who practice more aggressively — 50+ questions a day, daily review, weak-unit drilling — beat the curve. Students who practice sporadically underperform it.

If PrepLion says you're 80%+ ready and you don't pass, we refund your qualifying purchase. (CLEP/DSST only — SAT, ACT and TEAS aren't pass/fail exams, so the promise doesn't apply there.)

Conditions: the 80%+ readiness must have been shown to you before your exam date, backed by at least 3 full-length mock exams averaging 75+, with at least 80% of your study plan complete, an active subscription through your exam date, and no prior payout. Email your official score report to contact@preplion.ai within 30 days of the exam.

Payout is one payout per customer, ever (not per exam).

Why we're transparent about this

Most prep sites make promises they can't measure and can't back. We tell you the inputs because they're your data, they're on your dashboard, and they're auditable. If a projection misses, you'll see it immediately — we don't hide bad numbers.

Questions? Email contact@preplion.ai.